On a Tuesday morning in early 2025, a team of analysts at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden, Colorado, finished compiling a dataset that would eventually help shape how the United States thinks about solar energy costs. The work had taken months: gathering data from manufacturers, installers, and utilities; cross-referencing it against supply chain reports; running the numbers through a framework called the PV System Cost Benchmark, or PVSCB. The result was a set of quarterly cost estimates for solar photovoltaic systems across three market segments residential rooftop, community solar, and utility-scale ground-mount. By October 2025, that dataset had been published publicly, alongside an Excel model that anyone could download and explore.
This is not a story about a single moment. It is a story about a quiet, sustained effort one that most people never see to understand what solar energy actually costs, component by component, and to use that understanding to drive down prices for everyone.
What a Cost Benchmark Actually Is
Before diving into the numbers, it helps to understand what the Department of Energy means when it talks about solar photovoltaic system cost benchmarks. According to the DOE's official documentation, these benchmarks are bottom-up cost estimates of all major inputs to PV and energy storage system installations. They are not guesses. They are detailed models built from actual data on modules, inverters, mounting hardware, labor, permitting, interconnection fees, and dozens of other line items that together determine what a solar system costs to install and operate.
The benchmarks are developed by the DOE's Solar Energy Technologies Office, or SETO, in collaboration with researchers at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Sandia National Laboratories, and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. The work is part of a broader effort to track solar cost trends and focus research and development programs on the highest-impact activities. As the DOE's Solar Energy Cost and Data Analysis page explains, this tracking is essential for understanding where innovation can make the biggest difference.
"The benchmarks in this report are bottom-up cost estimates of all major inputs to PV and energy storage system installations," according to the Q1 2023 technical report on U.S. Solar Photovoltaic System and Energy Storage Cost Benchmarks. "Bottom-up costs are based on national averages and do not necessarily represent typical costs in all local markets."
That last point matters. The benchmarks describe what a representative system might cost using national average pricing and labor rates. They are not meant to predict what any single homeowner in Arizona or any single business in Ohio will pay. They are tools for tracking trends over time and identifying which parts of the solar value chain are becoming cheaper and which are not.
The Two Numbers: MSP and MMP
One of the most useful features of the benchmark framework is that it produces two distinct types of cost estimates. The first is called the minimum sustainable price, or MSP. The second is called the modeled market price, or MMP.
The MSP benchmark can be interpreted as the minimum price a company needs to charge to remain financially solvent in the long term, based on the minimum sustainable prices of all inputs including minimum sustainable profit margins. It is a floor, not a target. It represents the cost structure of a lean, efficient company operating with thin margins in a competitive market.
The MMP benchmark, by contrast, represents what the researchers estimate companies are actually charging customers in the given benchmark period. It includes higher margins, overhead costs, and the normal inefficiencies of a real market. The MMP is not a complaint about industry pricing it is a measurement tool for understanding the gap between theoretical efficiency and actual market behavior.
From a reader's perspective, the relationship between these two numbers tells a story. When the MMP is close to the MSP, the market is competitive and efficient. When the MMP is far above the MSP, there is room for new entrants, process improvements, or policy interventions to bring prices down. Tracking that gap over quarters and years is one of the main ways the DOE measures progress toward its clean energy goals.
What the Q1 2023 Data Showed
The most detailed technical report in the current dataset is the Q1 2023 U.S. Solar Photovoltaic System and Energy Storage Cost Benchmarks, With Minimum Sustainable Price Analysis, published in September 2023. That report, authored by researchers including Vignesh Ramasamy, Jarett Zuboy, Michael Woodhouse, Eric O'Shaughnessy, David Feldman, Jal Desai, Andy Walker, Robert Margolis, and Paul Basore, laid out the methodology and findings that would inform subsequent quarterly updates.
For residential rooftop systems in Q1 2023, the modeled market price benchmark was $2.90 per watt direct current, or Wdc. The minimum sustainable price benchmark was $2.34/Wdc. That means the MMP was about 24 percent higher than the MSP a meaningful gap that suggests room for continued market development and cost reduction. The report also noted that the Q1 2023 residential MMP was 9 percent lower than the Q1 2022 MMP of $3.18/Wdc, indicating a year-over-year decline in installed costs.
For community solar systems in the same quarter, the MMP benchmark was $1.75/Wdc, with an MSP of $1.49/Wdc. The gap was about 18 percent. Notably, the Q1 2022 report had no community solar benchmark for comparison, making the 2023 data the first systematic look at costs in that growing market segment.
Utility-scale systems, which make up the largest share of new solar capacity in the United States, were also analyzed in the report. The data showed that utility-scale costs had continued their long decline, driven by economies of scale in manufacturing and installation.
The Shift to the PVSCB Framework
For the first fifteen years of solar cost tracking, the benchmarks were developed using bottom-up cost models built individually for each quarterly report. Beginning in 2023, the approach changed. According to the NREL Solar Installed System Cost Analysis page, installed system cost benchmarks have since been produced using the PV System Cost Benchmark framework, or PVSCB.
The PVSCB framework represents a more standardized and reproducible method for estimating solar costs. It allows researchers to update assumptions more quickly when market conditions change, and it makes the methodology more transparent to outside reviewers. Since 2024, this work has been conducted as a DOE-led joint laboratory effort, in collaboration with Sandia National Laboratories and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, using the PVSCB framework.
This institutional shift matters for readers who want to understand how solar cost data is produced. The move from ad hoc quarterly reports to a shared framework across multiple national laboratories reflects a maturing of the research infrastructure. It also means that the data is more consistent over time, making year-over-year comparisons more reliable.
The Q1 2025 Dataset and Its Institutional Roots
The most recent benchmark dataset available in the current record is the Q1-2025 Solar Photovoltaic System Cost Benchmarks, published in October 2025 by a team that included Paul Basore, Krysta Dummit, Andy Thomas, Margaret Taylor, Peter Benoliel, David Feldman, Meenakshi Narayanaswami, Vignesh Ramasamy, Michael Woodhouse, Jarett Zuboy, Jennifer Braid, Norman Jost, and Evan Sproul. The work was sponsored by the DOE's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, with contributions from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and Sandia National Laboratories.
The dataset is available through the NLR Data Catalog, where it includes an Excel spreadsheet model, a description document, and step-by-step instructions for loading and using the cost data. This public accessibility is a key feature of the program. The benchmarks are not meant to sit behind a paywall they are tools for policymakers, researchers, investors, and curious citizens who want to understand the economics of solar energy.
The Q1 2025 dataset represents the most current snapshot of solar costs available as of mid-2026. While the data is historical reflecting conditions from the first quarter of 2025 it provides the best available evidence for understanding where the market stood before any policy changes or supply chain shifts that may have occurred since.
Why These Benchmarks Matter for Clean Energy Goals
To understand why this work matters, it helps to know where it fits in the broader context of U.S. energy policy. The DOE's Solar Energy Technologies Office aims to accelerate the advancement and deployment of solar technology in support of an equitable transition to a decarbonized economy no later than 2050, starting with a decarbonized power sector by 2035. Those are ambitious targets, and they require knowing whether solar is becoming more affordable fast enough to get there.
The cost benchmarks are one of the primary tools for answering that question. When the MMP for residential solar drops from $3.18/Wdc to $2.90/Wdc, that is not just a data point it is evidence that the solar industry is making progress toward the price levels needed for mass adoption. When the gap between MMP and MSP narrows, it suggests that the market is becoming more efficient. When it widens, it may indicate bottlenecks in the supply chain, regulatory barriers, or other obstacles that policy could address.
For readers who are evaluating whether to install solar, invest in solar companies, or advocate for clean energy policies, these benchmarks provide a factual foundation. They are not predictions, but they are the best available evidence for understanding the trajectory of solar costs and the areas where additional research investment is most likely to pay off.
What This Means for SubmitArticle Readers
For readers researching solar energy whether for a business decision, a policy position, or personal curiosity the DOE's cost benchmark system offers something rare: a detailed, transparent, and publicly accessible map of solar economics. The quarterly datasets, technical reports, and Excel models are tools that were built for researchers, but they are available to anyone with an internet connection and a willingness to dig into the numbers.
Understanding the distinction between MSP and MMP benchmarks is particularly useful. The MSP tells you what the floor should be in an efficient market. The MMP tells you what customers are actually paying. The gap between them is where opportunity lives for companies that can operate more efficiently, for policymakers who want to reduce barriers, and for consumers who want to understand whether they are getting a fair deal.
The framework also highlights the importance of distinguishing between national averages and local market conditions. A homeowner in Colorado may pay differently than a homeowner in California, not because the systems are fundamentally different, but because labor costs, permitting fees, interconnection requirements, and competition among installers vary by location. The benchmarks do not replace local quotes, but they provide context for evaluating them.
The Broader Research Infrastructure
The solar cost benchmark program is part of a larger ecosystem of solar research tools maintained by the DOE and its national laboratory partners. NREL, in particular, offers a range of techno-economic analysis tools that complement the cost benchmarks. The Levelized Cost of Energy Calculator, for example, helps researchers with limited knowledge of costs and markets quickly estimate how their ideas might influence the overall cost of solar-generated electricity. The System Advisor Model provides more detailed, project-specific analyses for users who need deeper granularity.
These tools are described on the NREL Solar Market Research and Analysis page, which also links to the full catalog of solar cost publications, including reports on floating photovoltaic systems, solar-plus-storage configurations, and manufacturing cost analysis. For readers who want to go deeper than the quarterly benchmarks, these publications offer years of documented progress in understanding solar economics.
How to Access the Data
For readers who want to explore the benchmarks themselves, the data is more accessible than many government datasets. The Q1 2025 Solar Photovoltaic System Cost Benchmarks are available through the NLR Data Catalog, where they can be downloaded as a zip file containing the Excel model, description documents, and read-me instructions. The files are designed to be used by analysts who want to run their own scenarios, adjust assumptions, or compare the DOE's estimates against their own market observations.
The DOE's Solar Photovoltaic System Cost Benchmarks page serves as the central hub for this program, linking to the latest datasets, technical reports, and related resources. It is a good starting point for anyone who wants to understand the full scope of the effort.
Reading the Numbers in Context
One of the most important lessons from the benchmark methodology is that no single estimate can reflect the full diversity of the solar manufacturing and installation industries. As the Q1 2023 technical report notes, "no individual estimate under any approach can reflect the diversity of the PV and storage manufacturing and installation industries." This is a candid acknowledgment that the benchmarks are tools, not truths. They are useful for tracking trends and guiding policy, but they do not capture every nuance of a market that includes thousands of installers, dozens of module manufacturers, and a wide range of system sizes, configurations, and customer types.
For readers, this means approaching the benchmarks with curiosity more than certainty. They are a map, not the territory. The territory is the actual experience of buying, installing, and operating a solar system and that experience varies widely depending on location, installer, equipment choices, and market conditions.
Where the Field Is Heading
The solar cost benchmark program has grown significantly since its early days. What began as a periodic research report has become a quarterly institution, supported by a multi-laboratory collaboration and published through open-access platforms. The framework has also expanded to include energy storage costs, solar-plus-storage configurations, and floating photovoltaic systems on artificial water bodies.
Looking ahead, the program is likely to continue evolving as the solar market matures and as new technologies perovskite modules, bifacial panels, advanced inverters, and grid-forming storage systems enter the mainstream. The benchmarks will need to adapt to capture the cost structures of these emerging technologies, just as they adapted to include community solar and utility-scale storage in recent years.
For readers who want to stay informed about solar economics, the quarterly benchmark releases are one of the most reliable sources of updated cost data available. They are produced by researchers with deep expertise in the field, reviewed through institutional processes, and published with enough methodological detail for outside analysts to evaluate their assumptions.
Where to Read Further
For readers who want to explore the sources directly, the following resources offer the most detailed access to the data and methodology behind the solar cost benchmark system:
- The Q1-2025 Solar Photovoltaic System Cost Benchmarks dataset on OSTI.GOV, including the downloadable Excel model and description documents
- The Q1 2023 technical report on U.S. Solar Photovoltaic System and Energy Storage Cost Benchmarks, which explains the MSP and MMP methodology in full detail
- The NLR Data Catalog entry for the Q1 2025 benchmarks, with step-by-step instructions for loading and using the cost models
- The NREL Solar Market Research and Analysis page, which links to the full range of solar cost publications and analysis tools
- The DOE's Solar Photovoltaic System Cost Benchmarks hub page, the central entry point for the program
Key Terms at a Glance
| Term | What It Means | What the Q1 2023 Data Showed |
|---|---|---|
| MSP (Minimum Sustainable Price) | The minimum price a company needs to charge to remain financially solvent long-term, including minimum sustainable profit margins | Residential: $2.34/Wdc; Community Solar: $1.49/Wdc |
| MMP (Modeled Market Price) | The estimated actual cash sales price companies charge in the benchmark period, including normal overhead and margins | Residential: $2.90/Wdc; Community Solar: $1.75/Wdc |
| Wdc (Watts Direct Current) | A unit of measure for the rated capacity of a solar panel or system, expressed in direct current output | Used as the standard unit for all benchmark figures in the Q1 2023 report |
| PVSCB Framework | The Photovoltaic System Cost Benchmark framework adopted in 2023 for standardized, reproducible cost estimation across quarterly reports | Replaced ad hoc bottom-up models starting with Q1 2023 reporting |
| Bottom-Up Cost Model | A cost estimation method that builds total system cost from individual component and labor inputs, based on national averages | Used through 2022; replaced by PVSCB in 2023 |
The solar photovoltaic cost benchmark system is not glamorous. It does not make headlines the way a new battery technology or a federal tax credit does. But it is one of the most rigorous and transparent tools available for understanding whether solar energy is becoming affordable enough, fast enough, to meet the country's decarbonization goals. For anyone who wants to move beyond vague optimism or skepticism about clean energy and engage with the actual numbers, the benchmark program is a place to start.